A weakening polar vortex could bring Arctic air and wintry conditions to the UK later this month, forecasters said on 7 November 2026. The polar vortex is a band of strong winds high in the atmosphere that typically keeps cold air trapped near the North Pole. If it weakens, there is a greater risk of colder air pushing south into the UK.
Marco Petagna, a forecaster at the Met Office, said at the moment a warming is taking place in the stratosphere, and the polar vortex in the stratosphere is starting to weaken. If the winds reverse, it could become a major sudden stratospheric warming event, potentially the earliest ever recorded. Mr Petagna said for the UK, it does increase the chance of cold weather, normally a few weeks down the line, so deeper into November is when the country is more likely to see an influence if it does happen.
Polar Vortex
It is important to emphasise that there was a major warming event last November, and on that occasion it did not directly lead to much cold weather in the UK. Forecasters will continue to monitor the polar vortex over the coming weeks to assess the likelihood of colder conditions reaching Britain. A sudden stratospheric warming does not guarantee snow or severe cold, but it shifts the odds, and it is one of the signals that forecasters watch when looking ahead to winter.
In the short term, a yellow fog warning was in place across parts of the South West, South East and Midlands on Sunday morning, potentially disrupting travel for people heading to Remembrance services. Monday was expected to start foggy again before rain and stronger winds spread across the UK on Tuesday and Wednesday, as Storm Bruna approached from the Atlantic.
The Met Office said most of the morning fog would clear to leave some sunshine in the afternoon, although thicker cloud would give patchy rain in the north and east, with a few heavy showers across the far south of England. By the end of the week, high pressure near Iceland may pull colder air down from the north, with the chance of wintry showers. It is not a certainty yet, but it is the first real sign of winter, and households are advised to check heating, insulation and cold weather payments.
Source: Gazette and Herald
